While tensions exist between Cairo and Tel Aviv, the Egyptian
military is a bloated, bureaucratic and mediocre organisation geared
towards internal security and economic profiteering [photo credit: Egypt
MoD]
The galaxy of bots and fake news
Across social media platforms Egyptian fake accounts, pages and
YouTubers are painting an alternate reality where Israel is preparing to
invade Egypt, the GIS is engaged in spy wars and undercover operations Raafat el-Haggan style, the Egyptian military is amassing its troops to threaten Israel and conducting commando operations and such like.
Central to this narrative is the country’s strongman, Sisi, standing
up to all sorts of cosmic conspiracies, supporting the Palestinians and
protecting Egypt’s sovereignty.
These propaganda efforts are not limited to cyberspace. The GIS-run
media channels are full of regime publicists screaming day and night,
warning Egyptians of the dangers lurking against their state and seizing
on anti-Egyptian content published by obscure Israeli websites or social media accounts to prove a war is imminent.
Paper Tiger
While tensions exist between Cairo and Tel Aviv over several issues,
most notably the Gaza displacement plans, the only escalation the
Egyptian regime is capable of doing is simply propaganda, nothing more,
nothing less.
Egypt was once a regional hegemon whose power has been steadily declining. It has become a beggar state,
addicted to debt and dependent on continuous bailouts from
international and regional donors—a process that had already started
with Sadat decades ago, continued with Mubarak and has accelerated under
Sisi’s rule.
The Egyptian military is a bloated, bureaucratic and mediocre
organisation geared towards internal security and economic profiteering.
Its ability to conduct conventional or counterinsurgency wars in its former spheres of influence has been largely exposed as hollow. Confronting an advanced Western-backed military power like Israel is out of the question.
Sinai
The issue of Sinai, in particular, exemplifies the drastic change in
Egypt’s military ideology and national security doctrines after 1979. In
2005, Israel gave the green light for Mubarak to increase his army presence by 750 personnel, to secure the borders following Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
Two years later the Egyptian army, in coordination with Israel, was a
direct participant in the siege of Gaza, to punish its Hamas rulers.
The siege lasted for more than decade, with brief interruptions, causing
an acute humanitarian disaster in the strip.
In 2011, Israel permitted the boosting of Egypt’s (militarised) police forces by an additional 1,000 soldiers to protect the gas pipeline that runs between Israel and Egypt.
One would think that if the Peace Treaty did not sit well with the
officer corps, the treaty would have been amended or annulled after the
military seized power in 2013. However, the complete opposite happened.
The alliance between the Egyptian army and its Israeli counterpart has
been cemented to an unprecedented level.
Since the 2013 coup, Israel has agreed to, if not encouraged, Cairo’s
multiple requests to increase its troops in the peninsula. This, in
effect, put the security annex to the Peace Treaty that demilitarised
Sinai on hold. By 2018, the Egyptian forces deployed, with Israel’s permission, amounted to 88 battalions with 42,000 soldiers.
Moreover, Israeli officials and lobbyists repeatedly intervened on the Egyptian army’s behalf to unblock US military aid and facilitate arms sales.
Last but not least, for the first time in history, following the 2013 coup, the Egyptian military regime allowed the Israelis to regularly conduct airstrikes in Sinai against alleged terror targets .
Thus, any talk of Israel as an enemy in the Egyptian army’s strategic
doctrines, or that the status of Sinai has been causing grievances, is a
baseless misrepresentation of reality.
The Egyptian regime’s “tough stance” against the displacement of the
Palestinians stems from genuine internal security concerns. The
Palestinians have been the central radicalising and politicising factor for the Arab people since the Nakba.
Moreover, Gazans resettled in Egypt, as Sisi publicly stated,
would not remain docile and resigned to their fate. Instead, “Sinai
would then become the base for operations against Israel, operations
Egypt would have to face the consequences of.”
Business as usual
The war of words is helpful for Sisi in shoring up support for his
regime, amidst rising anger in society over economic conditions and
draconian repression of any opposition.
However, on the ground, it's business as usual.
The video of Leiter’s inflammatory comments about Sinai was quickly
deleted from online platforms. World Jewish Congress President Ron
Lauder rushed to meet Sisi to ease tensions and reaffirm diplomatic ties.
Sources on the ground in Sinai confirm there is little change
regarding military presence. Not a single tank is stationed in Sinai
without Israel’s permission and the monitoring of MFO. Egyptian troops
watched Israel’s occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor during the war
and did nothing. When Israel killed Egyptian soldiers, Sisi’s regime
sought to play down the shooting, saying it was a “minor incident” and had “no political significance.”
Although the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced
on 12 May 2024 its “intention to officially intervene in support of
South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court
of Justice,” it never acted on this announcement nor intervened in the
case. And, to this day, Egypt has never commented on the ICJ arrest
warrant for Netanyahu and the former defense minister Yoav Gallant.
Business ties continued to grow
amidst the genocide. One hard fact amidst the verbal jousting between
Cairo and Tel Aviv is this: Egypt is dependent on Israeli gas imports
for its electricity grid and plans to increase its imports by 58% by mid-2025.
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